Large - scale stress factors affecting coral reefs : open ocean sea 3 surface temperature and surface seawater aragonite saturation 4 over the next 400 years 5
نویسنده
چکیده
8 Abstract One-third of the world’s coral reefs have dis9 appeared over the last 30 years, and a further third is under 10 threat today from various stress factors. The main global 11 stress factors on coral reefs have been identified as changes 12 in sea surface temperature (SST) and changes in surface 13 seawater aragonite saturation (Xarag). Here, we use a cli14 mate model of intermediate complexity, which includes an 15 ocean general circulation model and a fully coupled carbon 16 cycle, in conjunction with present-day observations of 17 inter-annual SST variability to investigate three IPCC 18 representative concentration pathways (RCP 3PD, RCP 19 4.5, and RCP 8.5), and their impact on the environmental 20 stressors of coral reefs related to open ocean SST and open 21 ocean Xarag over the next 400 years. Our simulations show 22 that for the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, the threshold of 3.3 23 for zonal mean annual Xarag would be crossed in the first 24 half of this century. By year 2030, 66–85% of the reef 25 locations considered in this study would experience severe 26 bleaching events at least once every 10 years. Regardless 27 of the concentration pathway, virtually every reef consid28 ered in this study ([97%) would experience severe thermal 29 stress by year 2050. In all our simulations, changes in 30 surface seawater aragonite saturation lead changes in 31 temperatures. 32 33
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